Anthony P's NBA Model June 7, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 7, 2023


As the 2023 NBA Finals narrative continues to unfold, the Miami Heat bounced back with a spirited 111-108 triumph over the Denver Nuggets in the second game. As the action now relocates to Miami for Game 3 on Wednesday evening (8:30 p.m. ET, ABC), the Heat have demonstrated their tenacity, securing their fourth win in the playoffs when trailing by eight or more points into the final quarter. We have no value on the current but it's still worth taking a dive into this game.

Following a tepid 33.3% three-point shooting performance and a mere two free-throw attempts in Game 1, Miami improved in Game 2 with a 48.6% success rate from beyond the arc. Although Denver concluded Game 2 with a superior overall shooting percentage, their defensive intensity lacked the required vigor. In fact, the Nuggets recorded their third-lowest defensive rating in these playoffs.

Listed as modest -2.5-point road favorites in Game 3, this series now has the potential to extend to a thrilling seven-game spectacle. Miami's strategic shift to deploy Kevin Love over Caleb Martin and assigning Butler to guard Jamal Murray stymied Denver's offensive rhythm enough to steal Game 2. Nikola Jokic still managed to score an impressive 41 points, but Murray was restricted to just 18 points, a drop from his Game 1 tally of 26.

During the regular season, Denver prided itself on having the second-lowest opponent's three-point shooting percentage. However, the Finals' pressure-cooker environment is a different beast altogether. Miami's Strus and Robinson sank a combined six-of-13 from long-range, and Vincent continued his form from deep.

The question now becomes, can Denver tighten up its perimeter defense to force Miami into a less efficient shooting night? They did enjoy some good fortune in Game 1 as Miami missed numerous good looks, but the Heat found their range in Game 2.

Complicating matters further, this Miami Heat team, defying expectations, has shot a remarkable 40.3% from the three-point line in 12 postseason road games, but only 37.3% from beyond the arc in eight games at their home court. If you believe the Heat will maintain their hot shooting streak, consider placing your wager on the Heat moneyline. However, if you think the Nuggets will display a renewed zeal and tighten up their perimeter defense, then Denver (-2.5) stands a fair chance of taking a 2-1 series lead.

However, for the purpose of speculation, I lean towards the Nuggets rectifying their defensive shortcomings and taking a 2-1 series lead in a game likely to feature lower scoring. Despite the efficient shooting we've seen from both teams thus far, the slower pace of the series suggests that betting the under can be the way to go.

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