Anthony P's NBA Model June 12, 2023

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I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JUNE 12, 2023


The betting line seems overblown, and it doesn't align with the predictions generated by my model. Despite this, I am inclined to believe that this number is accurate given the financial backing it has garnered. However, the situation takes an intriguing turn when we consider the 'squares' or casual bettors, who are responsible for 58% of the tickets. Their perspective provides a contrasting narrative, which adds another layer of complexity to the overall betting landscape.

The Miami Heat have shown respectful performance on the road recently, posting a 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 away games and an impressive 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. Their counterparts, the Denver Nuggets, hold a parallel record at home, standing at 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home fixtures and a strong 5-1 ATS in their last 6 overall matches. As for scoring, a low-scoring trend is evident, with the Heat posting an under in their last 8 out of 9 matches and the Nuggets in 4 out of their last 5. Interestingly, the Heat have struggled in Denver, recording 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings there, and holding a 10-28 ATS in the last 38 encounters.

Despite a few setbacks, the Miami Heat continue to yield profit as underdogs, with many of their spreads resulting in outright victories. The Heat tend to perform their best when odds are stacked against them. However, the Nuggets have proven superior in their previous 3 encounters, exploiting their size advantage to dominate the boards and command the paint. This has left the Heat in a precarious position.

The Heat's only triumph came in game 2, courtesy of sinking 17 three-pointers. However, with Jimmy Butler not at his best, the supporting cast struggling with their shot, and an undersized defense, the Heat are under immense pressure. If the Nuggets maintain their momentum and establish a significant lead during the 3rd or 4th quarter, it could potentially break the Heat's spirit, turning the match into a one-sided affair.

The Nuggets have outperformed in every game they've won during the Finals and are unlikely to halt their streak now. Their three victories by a margin of 10 or more points solidify their position as the superior side in this duel. The Heat seem ill-equipped to handle the size discrepancy, especially with Adebayo struggling to contain Jokic, who averages over 30 points, and lacking other big defenders to neutralize Gordon.

Moreover, Murray's evolution into one of the league's top point guards poses a big challenge for the Heat. Butler expends a considerable amount of energy shadowing him, given the inadequate defensive capabilities of the other Miami guards. This match could see the Nuggets reaffirm their exceptional season with a decisive, double-digit victory.

In light of the above, I would recommend siding with the Nuggets, even if it means accepting the chalk.

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