Anthony P's NBA Model January 30, 2023

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Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 30, 2023

We've got a busy night in the NBA. The model likes 2 sides and 2 totals.

The total in Philadelphia is now 230.5 and it only dropped 1/2 point from its opening. The model has this game at 221. The other total is under 241.5 in San Antonio. This total moved from 234.5 to 241.5 and it started moving up with the news that Porzingis is probable tonight. My projection is at 231 therefore a 10 pt gap gives up close to 11% EV.

The 76ers offense is leading the NBA in the last 14 days with 128 pts per game while Orlando is sporting the 21st-worst defense. Philadephia is leading the NBA with 63% of their games going over and we might see this trend continue tonight with both teams hitting the over in 16 of their last 20 combined games. Since Harden got injured it messed up the numbers for the 76ers but since he's back the over has been an ATM machine. I don't agree with the model here.

Given San Antonio's league-worst defense and fast-paced playing style, it's hard to support the under any time they play. The under the total cashed in only in 36% of their games this year. They are dead last in aDRTG and allowing close to 130 pts per game in the last 2 weeks. The over is 8-2 in their last 10 games and 8-1 in the last 9 meetings versus the Wizards. 242 is a lot but it makes it almost impossible to consider the under when a defense is allowing 130 pts per game.

OKC and Minnesota are 2 sides the model is liking tonight. I covered the Thunder in the Overnight Grind.

As for the Minnesota value, this is a weird game for me to handicap because every I bet on either team I lose. Momentum is definitely on the T'Wolves winning and covering their last 3 games and the squares are surprisingly not behind them. Rudy Gobert has been listed as questionable for tonight's game, but he's played in the past four games for Minnesota (averaging over 30 min per game) therefore I would say he's going to play tonight and the line movement hasn't told us otherwise. Minnesota is not known for their defensive play however in the last 2 weeks they rank 6th in points allowed per 100 possessions. Gobert's presence will be crucial in defending against Sacramento's paint-oriented offense therefore make sure he plays if you like Minnesota tonight.



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