Anthony P's NBA Model January 24, 2023

Anthony P
Anthony P
We will add new sports and models as we continue to build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.
Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 24, 2023

The drama continues in the NBA. Boston loses in Orlando, the Bucks dismantle the Pistons and played zero defense. Houston beats Minnesota, San Antonio didn't show up in the 3rd quarter and in Sacramento, the Kings win by 33 vs Memphis in a game where we saw 80 freaking points in the 1st quarter and the game went under the total. The home teams went 6-1 both SU and ATS.

The Bulls were the focus for us in this article yesterday and I am very impressed with how they playing defensively. I thought this game would be high in pace but the Bulls focused on defending and only allowed 100 pts.

The Bulls are back on the court tonight but the model likes the Pacers and that deserved a JFC when I ran my model last night. The Bulls opened at +1 and moved to -2 with 75% of the tickets and handle supporting them.

Ranking the Pacers without Haliburton drops them all below the Pistons which the Bulls easily won in Paris over the weekend. The Bulls had a 4 day's rest between Paris and Atlanta's game which would explain the lack of reports on anyone resting tonight.

I have to disagree with my model tonight. In the last 2 weeks, I have the Pacers with a -16.9 rating in terms ED (efficiency differential, points socred per 100 possessions minus points allowed per 100 possessions) and the Bulls at +6. The last time we had a gap like this was when OKC played the same Pacers. The line was -3.5 for OKC and they won by 20 pts.

Fade the model and bet on the Bulls to dominate this game.


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