Anthony P's NBA Model January 16, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 16, 2023

The model was bang on the Bulls yesterday. I recommended to not tail the model and it seems I never learn. TRUST THE MODEL!!

Atlanta burnt me a couple of times this season. One of them was in Indiana 3 days ago. The following day they were in Toronto on a road b2b and won by 11 as a 7.5 dog BUT NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO THEY COULDN'T BEAT A DECIMATED PACERS team!!!! I hate the NBA sometimes.

Miami is coming in hot beating the Bucks in b2b games and taking care of the Thunder which was one of the hottest teams. The value on Atlanta is solely based on Capela and Young playing tonight. I saw a tweet from a beat writer stating that there is a high probability that Capela will play tonight but nothing is confirmed yet. As for Young, he's set probable for tonight and he should play. The Heat might end up being a popular pick based on their last 11 games but if Capela and Young play they will face a healthy Hawks team that can give them a very hard time getting 3's and lose their edge rebounding with Capela back.

Lastly, The Hawks will need to control the pace in this game. The Heat are 3rd last in pace while the Hawks are 7th. If the Heat takes control and slow this game down it will get the Hawks off their game.

Go Hawks if Young and Capela play.


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