Anthony P's NBA Model January 12, 2023

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR JAN 12, 2023

We covered the Bulls and Wizards yesterday and there were so many concerns about injuries that it made me stay away from this game. Washington ended up winning the game by 3 points as they closed at +1. The line did move toward my projections. Tonight we have a couple of teams on b2b and the line movement has been crazy and making it difficult to set an accurate projection.

Tonight we have value on Nets which will be without Durant and I wrote about it in the Overnight Grid article. The line is now at +1.5 and it dropped another 1.5 since I finished writing the Overnight Grind. Nonetheless, who will play or not for Boston, the value is gone on the Nets but I believe their D will lead them to victory.

OKC is not showing much value however there is a 3 pt gap between the line and my projections. The Thunder are 3rd in pace with 102 possessions per 48 minutes and the 76ers have issues with teams focused on playing a fast transition game. OKC is 3-2 in their last 5 but 4-1 ATS. Also, the Thunder have been a solid ATS road team this year and 4-1 ATS last 5 games in Philadelphia. I like OKC in this spot and the line is not moving in their favor therefore I'd wait and see if I can take +10 or better.


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