Anthony P's NBA Model February 6, 2023

We will add new sports and models as we build the app and make it more robust. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR FEB 6, 2023

Personally, I have no time to chase after time management in the NBA on a Sunday afternoon or evening. For me, it's a clear F$ck that!! Instead, yesterday I solely focused on college basketball and we had a decent day going 3-1. However, during weekdays, it's my job to chase after the injury and time management reports and everyone at Anthony P's household knows that (doesn't mean they like it though)

The model is screaming value on the under in Portland this evening. Giannins is now upgraded to probable tonight. Portland will get back Payton and Eubanks while Nurkic is still out indefinitely.

This is a dangerous total to bet on. Since the loss of Nurkic Portland dropped before last in points against per 100 possession (127) and jumped to the #1 spot in scoring per 100 possession with 131 pts per game. The Bucks offense has been doing better offensively versus their mean and should continue tonight versus Portland. Defensively there is no regression for the Bucks and they still rank in the top 3 in terms of points against per 100 possession at around 107 per game.

Looking at Milwaukee's recent run, I wasn't surprised to see the total going under when playing the Clippers and Denver but I was surprised to see 238 pts scored in the Heat game with the #3 and 4 best defenses on the court. The Bucks shot for 52% from the field. Back up 3 games versus the Hornets, they shot 41% and scored 135 pts with both teams attempting over 100 FG's. In the last 10 games, Milwaukee has averaged 138 pts per game against teams that ranked at the bottom 10 in aDRTG (pts allowed per 100 possessions) in the last 10 days and even scored 135 on New Orleans which still owns the 9th best aDRTG rating.

I cannot support the under in this game since recent data is showing that Milwaukee can score between 130-140 pts alone in this game.



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