Anthony P's NBA Model December 5, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 5, 2022

The numbers are tight for tonight however I did find some value on the under in Orlando tonight. The betting split shows that the public is liking over with close to 70% of the tickets while the handle is 50/50. I expect this total to drop back closer to its opening number of 225.5.

I don't understand this total. The Magic have barely put up over 100 pts in their last 5 games and tonight they are playing the 3rd best defense this season. I doubt this team scores more than 100 tonight ffs!!! This total is way off. Bet the under.

The AI likes the Hornets tonight and has them at -5 while the book is giving us 3.5 pts. That's an 8.5 pt swing. We have another game that our learning machine likes however it's dependent on a key player playing. If Butler plays, the AI has the Heat at -3 on the road tonight when they face the Grizzlies. The line is moving in the Heat's favor this morning. It opened at -2 yesterday afternoon and it dropped a full point while 67% of the handle is on the home team.

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