Anthony P's NBA Model December 20, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 20, 2022

The Lakers had no one playing just as expected and they took a beating. OKC was a popular bet and they covered and won straight up!!!

We have a 20% value on the Nuggets and most of the value opened up when this line shifted to from -3 to +2. My line is at -2 and the smart money does not agree with my projection. Where did I go wrong? My projections include Murray and Jokic since I believe both will play. Is the market telling us that Murray won't? Is Denver terrible ATS? 100% but this game is going to be a close one. Is Memphis healthier? Definitely and that's where the game will be played. If you are considering the Nuggets, you will need to make sure both Jokic and Murray play. If one of them is missing, you fade.

I have included the AI projections on the far right of the model but please make sure you take a look at the app for the most updated projection. The projections dramatically changed on the Magic yesterday and Kevin pulled the trigger and won yet another NBA play.

As of 1230 PM EST, the AI has the Bulls favorite by 2 while the markets are giving you 4.5 pts. The AI also likes the Knicks and projects them at -9 while the books posted a -6 line. Note that this game opened at -4.5 in some US shops and I don't expect more movement in this game unless of late injury news. Lastly and if you have balls, you can take the Wizards at +7. The AI has this game at a pickem. The Suns seem that have found their mojo back while Washington has only 1 win in their last 10 and a 2-7-1 ATS record during that span.

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