Anthony P's NBA Model DECEMBER 2, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 2, 2022

We only had 1 game yesterday and there was no value. The Pistons pulled the upset winning outright as an 8-point underdog.

We have 11 games tonight and the model has 1 game that stands out. Note that I have also added the AI projections at the far right of the model.

Atlanta is hosting the Denver Nuggets tonight and my model and the IA are disagreeing on the projections. My model has the Haws at -3 while the AI is favoring the Nuggets to win by 5.5. The current line is at -2.5 for Denver hence the value on the Hawks.

The Nuggets have won 4 straight however played the Rockets twice, the Clippers, and OKC. The Hawks finally won a game in Orlando after losing 3 straight to the 76ers, Heat, and Rockets. Atlanta is looking to gain momentum after a big game by Young, Murray, and Capela. The Nuggets are shooting the ball at 52% from the field in the last 4 games and it's slightly over their season mean. The Hawks continue to face injuries. We know that Collins and Hunter are out tonight. Kaminsky and Capela are questionable. It will be hard to support the value with the injuries and the way that Denver has been shooting.

The AI is finding value in the Miami Heat and suggests taking the +8 since the Celtics should be 3 pts favorites. It also likes the 76ers at +5.5 and the Spurs at +7.

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