Anthony P's NBA Model December 16, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 16, 2022

The Jazz wins another battle against the Pels. It was one hell of a game! The Rockets covered and the Clippers lost big as expected with George and Leonard out.

My model loves the Hawks, Raptors, and Nuggets. I will not be looking into the Raptors. I really don't like what I'm seeing from them and my lean would be on the Nets.

Atlanta is on the road tonight to Charlotte and they opened a 1 pt dog and the line is moving against them and up to +2.5 this morning. The model has this game at pickem and the AI thinks the Hawks should be a 1pt favorite. Betting splits suggest that smart money is on the Hornets since they hold 40% of the tickets but 67% of the handle. The Haws are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings in Charlotte and will be missing Capela tonight and is expected to return in late December. Atlanta hasn't looked good lately but the Hornets have looked brutal losing 6 straight and losing the last 3 games with an ATS margin of 11 pts. My concern about pulling the trigger on the Hawks tonight is their injuries while the Hornets are relatively healthy and should get back Hayward tonight.

I have the Nuggets at -3 tonight while the AI has them at -5. The line is -1.5. Some US shops opened this game as a pickem yesterday afternoon. James and Davis are probably tonight so we don't really need to worry about them not playing. The Nuggets are still without Porter Jr. The over dominates this series going 29-11-2 in the last 42 games. Denver beat Portland and Utah last 3 games and when I expected a small letdown against Washington, they won, covered, and put up 141 points. The Lakers lost 4 of out 5 but they played the Celtics tough just to lose in OT. Denver has one of the worst aDRTG but top 3 in aORTG. The Lakers have been terrible at shooting 3s and his dead last in the league but have a defensive edge in this matchup. If the Lakers bring their A game at defense and play as they did in the second half of the Celtics game they can win this one.

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