Anthony P's NBA Model December 15, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 15, 2022

It's the Jazz vs Pelicans part 2 tonight in Utah. The Pels were terrible last game after being so dominant. The numbers all pointed to the Pels however it wasn't an ideal situation traveling in elevation after taking care of business against the Suns in back-to-back games. Tonight they get a chance to redeem themselves after shooting 4/27 on 3's and shooting 40% from the field. My model has the Jazz at -4.5 and the IA at -10.5. The line opened at -1 for the Pels and it moved to -2.5 early this morning. After missing 3 games, Markkanen came back and was a big part of the win for the Jazz and they dominated the boards. Zion got in foul trouble early in the game and the Pels never recovered. It's hard to stay away from the Jazz with the model and AI liking them this much but I still believe the Pels are a much better team and they should get their revenge tonight.

The Rockets beat the Suns (again), the Bucks, and the 76ers in 3 of their last 4 but they weren't able to beat the Spurs that had lost 11 straight. That just shows you how inconstant they are. The Heat are on no rest since they played last night and we need to keep an eye on the injury report before pulling the trigger in this game. Nonetheless, the model and the AI both have the Rockets at -2.5 and that is weird to see. They opened at +5 and the line dropped to +4 this morning. How much can we trust the Heat's D on a back-to-back versus this weak Rockets offense? Can the Rockets continue playing this inspired type of basketball? They rank dead last in FG% at 44.3 and are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings playing Miami at home. Miami is 2-3 on no rest and 1-4 ATS. I'll wait and see how's playing for Miami before pulling the trigger on this game.

The clippers are on a back-to-back also and we can expect Leonard and George to sit. If they do, we cannot expect the same defensive effort from the Clippers. The Suns have been unrecognizable losing their last 5 badly with an ATS margin of close to 15 pts per game. The line suggests many Clippers will sit this one out.

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