Anthony P's NBA Model December 12, 2022

As we continue to build the app and make it more robust, we will add new sports and models. While our developers work on that, we want to give you as much information as possible via content and articles.

I will post my MLB, NFL, and NHL models as often as possible.

Reading the model is very simple. We are looking for EVs of over 5% on sides and 8 to 10% on totals. Sportsbooks tend to inflate lines on big favorites. I love to take a big underdog in those spots if they have a good pitcher on the mount and if the game is on home turf.

You should all play around with these and track them yourselves. See if you are seeing those with a significant edge losing often.

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NBA BETTING MODEL FOR DEC 12, 2022

Detroit and Chicago kept it close and covered yesterday. The Rockets have no issues winning SU to the Suns and Bucks but god forbid they can beat the Spurs. The Raptors road issues continue and lose again to the Magic. Home teams were 5-2 ATS yesterday.

My model loves the under in Dallas and it started to drop this morning. I missed the 230 but 229.5 is available in some markets. Both teams have a similar aDRTG rating but the gap is wider on offense. Doncic and Kieber are probable for tonight but don't get fooled and think the Mavs will cover. This team is brutal covering the number when favorite but 7 or more pts. The under is a better option if you want some action on this game. In the last 5 games, the books set an average total of 210 and now opened at 230. I'm not crazy about both teams' defensive play lately but the Thunders offense is barely scoring 100 pts per game and I can't see the Mavs scoring 130. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 games in Dallas and 5-1 last 6 road games for OKC. Lastly, let's not forget that Dallas just gave up 144 pts to Chicago and they will want a better defensive result in this game.

The AI is strong on the Spurs, Timberwolves, and Clippers.

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