Yankees vs Astros Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 3rd, 2023
In a highly anticipated American League matchup, the Houston Astros will take on the New York Yankees at Minute Maid Park on September 3, 2023. The Astros, currently in possession of a Wild Card spot, are looking to solidify their spot in the playoffs, while the Yankees are facing an uphill battle to make the postseason. Let's dive into the details of this game to see how these teams match up.
The Astros, currently in second place in the AL East, have been having a good season with a record of 77-60. They have met their high expectations and are ranked as the third-best team in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Their offense has been strong, ranking seventh-best in the league, with notable performances from their best hitter, Kyle Tucker. Tucker has played in 133 games, recording 79 runs, 98 RBIs, 26 home runs, and 26 stolen bases, with a batting average of .291 and an OPS of .888.
On the other hand, the Yankees find themselves in fifth place in the AL West. With a record of 67-69, they have underperformed expectations this season. Their offense ranks 24th in MLB, with Gleyber Torres leading the way as their best hitter. Torres has played in 133 games, scoring 74 runs, hitting 23 home runs, and stealing 13 bases, with a batting average of .270 and an OPS of .798.
Taking the mound for the Astros is Cristian Javier, a right-handed pitcher. Javier has started 25 games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 8-2 and an ERA of 4.36. Although his ERA is average, his xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky this season and could perform worse going forward.
Opposing Javier will be Michael King, a right-handed pitcher for the Yankees. King has made 43 appearances out of the bullpen this year, with a Win/Loss record of 3-5 and an impressive ERA of 3.08.
In their last game, the Astros lost to the Yankees by a score of 5-4. Despite being the favorites with a closing Moneyline price of -180, they were unable to secure the win. The Yankees, on the other hand, were the underdogs with a closing Moneyline price of +160 but managed to come out on top.
According to our projections, the Astros have a higher win probability of 58%, making them the favorites in this game, while the Yankees have a projected win probability of 42%. The Astros' offense is expected to score 5.13 runs on average, while the Yankees are projected to score 4.61 runs.
With both teams looking to secure a win, this matchup promises to be an exciting one. The Astros' strong offense and the Yankees' solid bullpen, ranked ninth-best in MLB, will be key factors to watch. Can the Astros continue their successful season, or will the Yankees pull off an upset? Tune in to find out.
Yankees Insights
The leading projection system (The Sharp Model X) expects Michael King to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 76 pitches.
The Houston Astros don't have any same-handed RPs in their bullpen, so Austin Wells is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever the whole game.
New York's 89.7-mph average exit velocity this year is among the best in MLB: #3 overall.
Astros Insights
With 6 batters who share his handedness in the opposing team's projected batting order, Cristian Javier should benefit from holding the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.
Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (The Sharp Model X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.246) provides evidence that Jose Altuve has been lucky this year with his .312 actual batting average.
Jose Abreu hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards MLB's 8th-deepest CF fences in today's game.
Betting Trends
The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 25 games (+9.60 Units / 35% ROI)
The New York Yankees have hit the Team Total Under in 47 of their last 84 games (+6.88 Units / 7% ROI)
Aaron Judge has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 14 games (+8.00 Units / 28% ROI)