Washington Nationals @ Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - August 5th, 2022


Today's contest between the Phillies and the Nationals pits THE BAT's 58th ranked SP (Josiah Gray) against the 116th ranked SP (Kyle Gibson). The rundown on Gray tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 42.8% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (28.6%). Gibson is a sinker guy (29.4%) who brings a cut-fastball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Gray deserves something like a 5.30 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 4.59. On that front, Gibson's ERA sits at 4.60 and his FIP at 4.43.

Washington Nationals Insights

  • Josiah Gray’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 outings (2241 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2191 rpm).

  • Cesar Hernandez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (89% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the batting order today.

  • The Washington Nationals have been the luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to negatively regress going forward

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Kyle Gibson is an extreme groundball pitcher (47.4% GB% per THE BAT projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Citizens Bank Park — the #8 HR venue in Major League Baseball — in this matchup.

  • Brandon Marsh's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 88.1-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 79.6-mph over the last two weeks.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies bullpen profiles as the 10th-best in MLB, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 34 of their last 53 games (+12.20 Units / 17% ROI)

  • The Washington Nationals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 50 of their last 86 games (+14.50 Units / 15% ROI)

  • Victor Robles has hit the Singles Over in 15 of his last 25 games (+8.05 Units / 31% ROI)