Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays Matchup Preview - September 22nd, 2022


The Blue Jays are scheduled to start Jose Berrios (11-5, 4.99 ERA) against Rays starting pitcher Ryan Yarbrough (2-8, 4.33 ERA) on Thursday. Jose Berrios recorded the win in his last outing, as the Blue Jays beat the Orioles 6-3. He pitched 6 innings allowing 2 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 3 strikeouts with 2 walks. The last time Ryan Yarbrough took the mound, he recorded a win as the Rays defeated the Rangers 5-1. He finished with 3 IP, 2 K, 1 BB, while allowing 1 earned run on 4 hits. Today, Berrios projects for 5.95 innings pitched with 2.7 ER, 5.9 hits, 4.9 strikeouts, and 1.4 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Yarbrough's average outcome to be 4.77 IP, 2.5 ER, 4.8 H, 3.2 strikeouts, and 1.1 walks.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

  • Jose Berrios has used his sinker 5% less often this season (25.2%) than he did last year (30.2%).

  • Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the batting order in this matchup.

  • Toronto's 90.3-mph average exit velocity since the start of last season ranks among the best in the league: #1 overall.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

  • Ryan Yarbrough’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (80.8 mph) has been considerably lower than than his seasonal rate (82 mph).

  • Jonathan Aranda has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 103-mph average in the past 14 days to his seasonal 96.4-mph EV.

  • Manuel Margot hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (44.2% — 100th percentile) and faces baseball's 9th-deepest CF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 37 of their last 64 games at home (+5.65 Units / 7% ROI)

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.95 Units / 36% ROI)

  • Harold Ramirez has hit the Runs Under in 13 of his last 14 games (+11.10 Units / 41% ROI)