Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022


Toronto's third baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Kyle Schwarber and the Phillies. This season Vladimir Guerrero Jr is batting .280 with 29 home runs, 84 runs, 85 RBIs, and 8 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 5th in the lineup with a The Sharp Model X projection of .226 Avg, .302 wOBA and .20 HRs. On the Phillies side, Kyle Schwarber has shined this year (.214 Avg, 40 HRs, 90 Rs, 84 RBIs, & 7 SBs). He's projected to bat 4th and The Sharp Model X projects his average performance today as a .344 wOBA, and .17 HRs.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

  • Kevin Gausman has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 5.6 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • Whit Merrifield has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (79% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the batting order in this matchup.

  • Danny Jansen has a high pull rate on his flyballs (42.2% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Noah Syndergaard has been unlucky with his strikeouts this year, posting a 6.38 K/9 despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 6.70 — a 0.32 K/9 deviation.

  • Jean Segura has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 103.7-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 90.3-mph.

  • Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto profiles as an elite pitch framer, according to The Sharp Model projection system.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 20 of their last 28 games at home (+11.30 Units / 37% ROI)

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 away games (+3.80 Units / 33% ROI)

  • Nick Castellanos has hit the Runs Under in 29 of his last 42 games at home (+8.45 Units / 13% ROI)