Sharp App: Sports Betting

Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles Matchup Preview - October 5th, 2022

Today's contest between the Orioles and the Blue Jays pits The Sharp Model's 123rd ranked SP (Yusei Kikuchi) against the 320th ranked SP (Spenser Watkins). The rundown on Kikuchi tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 52.4% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (26.5%). Watkins is a four-seam guy (38.9%) who brings a cut-fastball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Kikuchi deserves something like a 5.70 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 5.27. On that front, Watkins's ERA sits at 4.76 and his FIP at 4.28.

Toronto Blue Jays Insights

  • Yusei Kikuchi has been given a below-average leash this year, throwing 12.5 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • Jackie Bradley Jr. has been unlucky with his wOBA this year; his .248 mark is quite a bit lower than his .291 Expected wOBA (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have done a favorable job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 13.3° mark is among the highest in the game since the start of last season (#7 overall).

Baltimore Orioles Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Spenser Watkins has used his secondary offerings 9.5% more often this year (61.1%) than he did last season (51.6%).

  • Ryan McKenna has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (78% of the time), but he is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game.

  • The Baltimore Orioles bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the game, according to The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games at home (+0.55 Units / 5% ROI)

  • The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.45 Units / 59% ROI)

  • Matt Chapman has hit the RBIs Under in 9 of his last 10 away games (+7.25 Units / 33% ROI)