Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Gaurdians Matchup Preview - September 28th, 2022

Right-hander Tyler Glasnow is expected to start today for Tampa Bay, while right-hander Triston McKenzie gets the nod at home for Cleveland. McKenzie enters this contest with a 3.04 ERA, backed up by a 3.72 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). The last time Tyler Glasnow was on the bump, the Rays beat the White Sox 5-2. He left allowing 2 earned runs and recording 6 strikeouts with 1 walk. McKenzie's last start was against the White Sox, when he recorded the win as the Guardians were victorious 8-2. Over 8 innings pitched, he allowed 2 earned runs with 6 hits. He also recorded 13 strikeouts with 0 walks.

Tampa Bay Rays Insights

• The Sharp Model X expects Tyler Glasnow to be on a pitch count in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 45 pitches.

• Ji-Man Choi has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (83% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th on the lineup card in this matchup.

• Manuel Margot hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (44.3% — 100th percentile) and faces MLB's 7th-deepest CF fences today.

Cleveland Gaurdians Insights

• It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Triston McKenzie has utilized his off-speed and breaking balls 6.2% more often this year (44.6%) than he did last season (38.4%).

• Myles Straw has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 85-mph average to last year's 87.5-mph average.

Betting Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)

• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 5 of their last 8 games (+1.40 Units / 15% ROI)

• Taylor Walls has hit the Total Bases Under in 11 of his last 14 away games (+8.35 Units / 55% ROI)