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Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Matchup Preview - October 13th, 2022


Today's contest between the Astros and the Mariners pits The Sharp Model's 19th ranked SP (Luis Castillo) against the 17th ranked SP (Framber Valdez). The rundown on Castillo tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 32.9% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (22.3%). Valdez is a sinker guy (48.5%) who brings a curveball as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Castillo deserves something like a 3.07 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.99. On that front, Valdez's ERA sits at 2.82 and his FIP at 3.06.

Seattle Mariners Insights

  • Luis Castillo's 96.1 mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 96th percentile among starters.

  • J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (68% of the time), but he is penciled in 9th in the lineup today.

  • Projected catcher Cal Raleigh grades out as a good pitch framer, according to The Sharp Model projection system.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Given that groundball pitchers are least effective against flyball hitters, Framber Valdez (62.1% GB% via The Sharp Model projections) will be a bit disadvantaged in this matchup with 3 FB hitters in Seattle's projected batting order.

  • The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

  • The Houston Astros bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the league, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 96 of their last 151 games (+29.30 Units / 15% ROI)

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Run Line in 33 of their last 50 away games (+13.65 Units / 20% ROI)

  • Mitch Haniger has hit the Singles Over in 17 of his last 27 away games (+8.95 Units / 32% ROI)


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