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Seattle Mariners vs Houston Astros Matchup Preview - October 11th, 2022


Seattle Mariners Insights

  • Despite conventional wisdom, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Logan Gilbert has used his off-speed and breaking balls 6.2% more often this season (44.7%) than he did last season (38.5%).

  • J.P. Crawford has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (68% of the time), but he is projected to hit 9th in the batting order in this matchup.

  • The Seattle Mariners bullpen projects as the 3rd-best in Major League Baseball, according to The Sharp Model.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Justin Verlander's 2424 rpm fastball spin rate this year grades out in the 91st percentile among starting pitchers.

  • The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.

  • Chas McCormick has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 95 of their last 148 games (+31.00 Units / 16% ROI)

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 38 of their last 58 away games (+15.95 Units / 21% ROI)

  • Julio Rodriguez has hit the Hits Over in 12 of his last 15 games (+9.50 Units / 30% ROI)


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