Seattle Mariners @ New York Yankees Matchup Preview - August 3rd, 2022


Today's contest between the Yankees and the Mariners pits THE BAT's 20th ranked SP (Luis Castillo) against the 6th ranked SP (Gerrit Cole). The rundown on Castillo tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 32.1% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a changeup (25.8%). Cole is a four-seam guy (49.8%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Castillo deserves something like a 3.20 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 2.86. On that front, Cole's ERA sits at 3.30 and his FIP at 3.19.

Seattle Mariners Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Luis Castillo has used his fastball a lot this year, though: 53.3% of the time, grading out in the 75th percentile.

  • J.P. Crawford's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 86.1-mph average last season has dropped off to 84.1-mph.

  • Projected catcher Luis Torrens grades out as a weak pitch framer, via THE BAT projection system.

New York Yankees Insights

  • Gerrit Cole's 97.1 mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 99th percentile among SPs.

  • Extreme flyball bats like Matt Carpenter tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Castillo.

  • The 17.7% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #1 club in the game since the start of last season by this metric.

Betting Trends

  • The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 70 of their last 105 games (+11.25 Units / 6% ROI)

  • The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 36 of their last 57 games (+15.55 Units / 22% ROI)

  • Giancarlo Stanton has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 16 games at home (+7.65 Units / 42% ROI)