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San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies Matchup Preview - October 23rd, 2022


Yu Darvish (48th ranked SP via The Sharp Model) is projected to take the mound for Padres as they battle the Phillies and Zack Wheeler (6th ranked SP) at Citizens Bank Park. The quick scouting report on Darvish: his main fastball is a cut-fastball, which he uses 35.5% of the time. His primary out-pitch is a slider (18.1%). Meanwhile, Wheeler primarily throws a four-seamer fastball (40.8%) and his most-used secondary offering is his slider (26.8%). The Sharp Model X projects Darvish for 2.4 earned runs and 5.4 strikeouts in this matchup. On the other side, Wheeler is forecasted for 1.9 earned runs and 5.1 strikeouts.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Yu Darvish has gone to his slider 5% less often this year (18.1%) than he did last year (23.1%).

  • Brandon Drury has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (91% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th in the lineup today.

  • San Diego's 91.7-mph exit velocity on flyballs grades them out as the #23 club in the league since the start of last season by this metric.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Zack Wheeler's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this year (95.2 mph) below where it was last season (96.4 mph).

  • J.T. Realmuto has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last season's 94.8-mph figure.

  • Rhys Hoskins has a high pull rate on his flyballs (35.9% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 40 of their last 63 games at home (+16.10 Units / 23% ROI)

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 11 of their last 14 away games (+9.00 Units / 58% ROI)

  • Juan Soto has hit the Runs Under in 27 of his last 42 games (+7.70 Units / 13% ROI)


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