San Diego Padres vs New York Mets Matchup Preview - October 7th, 2022

San Diego Padres Insights

• Yu Darvish has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 9.5 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

• Extreme groundball bats like Josh Bell usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Max Scherzer.

New York Mets Insights

• Max Scherzer has been lucky this year, posting a 2.29 ERA despite The Sharp Model estimating his true talent level to be 3.15 — a 0.86 disparity.

• Jeff McNeil has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (52% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.

• The New York Mets bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best in MLB, via The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 54 of their last 81 games at home (+21.92 Units / 21% ROI)

• The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 73 of their last 139 games (+13.10 Units / 9% ROI)

• Pete Alonso has hit the RBIs Over in 13 of his last 21 games (+7.55 Units / 35% ROI)