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San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Preview - October 12th, 2022


Today's contest between the Dodgers and the Padres pits The Sharp Model's 48th ranked SP (Yu Darvish) against the 7th ranked SP (Clayton Kershaw). The rundown on Darvish tells us that he leans on his cut-fastball 35.5% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a slider (18.1%). Kershaw is a four-seam guy (40.3%) who brings a slider as his most-trusted secondary offering. Advanced stats (namely, FIP) tell us that Darvish deserves something like a 3.31 ERA, compared to his actual ERA of 3.10. On that front, Kershaw's ERA sits at 2.28 and his FIP at 2.57.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Yu Darvish's 2414 rpm fastball spin rate this year is in the 89th percentile among SPs.

  • Manny Machado has been lucky this year, posting a .377 wOBA despite The Sharp Model X estimating his true talent level to be .342 — a .035 discrepancy.

  • The San Diego Padres bullpen grades out as the 7th-best in the game, per The Sharp Model.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • Clayton Kershaw has been given less leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.1 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

  • Miguel Vargas has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (91% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this game.

  • Joey Gallo has a high pull rate on his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 63 of their last 100 games (+23.20 Units / 19% ROI)

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 74 of their last 145 games (+8.75 Units / 6% ROI)

  • Manny Machado has hit the Total Bases Over in 31 of his last 53 games (+9.20 Units / 15% ROI)


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