Sharp App: Sports Betting

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers Matchup Preview - September 4th, 2022

The Padres are scheduled to start Mike Clevinger (5-5, 3.59 ERA) against Dodgers starting pitcher Ryan Pepiot (2-0, 4.02 ERA) on Sunday. Mike Clevinger recorded the win in his last outing, as the Padres beat the Giants 6-5. He pitched 5 innings allowing 2 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 3 strikeouts with 1 walk. The last time Ryan Pepiot took the mound, he recorded a win as the Dodgers defeated the Marlins 10-3. He finished with 6 IP, 7 K, 2 BB, while allowing 2 earned runs on 4 hits. Today, Clevinger projects for 4.67 innings pitched with 3.1 ER, 4.9 hits, 4.4 strikeouts, and 1.9 walks, according to THE BAT. Meanwhile, THE BAT projects Pepiot's average outcome to be 4.45 IP, 2.9 ER, 4.5 H, 3.8 strikeouts, and 2.2 walks.

San Diego Padres Insights

  • Mike Clevinger has been unlucky with his strikeouts this year, posting a 7.70 K/9 despite THE BAT estimating his true talent level to be 8.42 — a 0.72 K/9 difference.

  • Extreme groundball batters like Josh Bell generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ryan Pepiot.

  • Jose Azocar has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.5%) and will be challenged by MLB's 9th-deepest RF fences today.

Los Angeles Dodgers Insights

  • Ryan Pepiot's 2416 rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 89th percentile among starting pitchers.

  • Gavin Lux has negatively regressed with his Barrel% of late; his 6.5% seasonal rate has fallen to 0% over the last two weeks.

Betting Trends

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 32 of their last 59 games (+7.65 Units / 12% ROI)

  • The San Diego Padres have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 57 of their last 109 games (+9.30 Units / 8% ROI)

  • Manny Machado has hit the Hits Over in 32 of his last 49 away games (+17.50 Units / 23% ROI)