Rangers vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 31st, 2023

On October 31, 2023, the Arizona Diamondbacks will face off against the Texas Rangers at Chase Field. This interleague matchup is the fourth game in the series between the two teams. The Diamondbacks, as the home team, will be looking to defend their turf and secure a win against the Rangers.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Joe Mantiply, who has primarily been used out of the bullpen this year. Despite being ranked as the #132 best starting pitcher in MLB, Mantiply has shown decent performance with a 2-2 win/loss record and an average ERA of 4.62. Peripheral indicators such as SIERA, xERA, and FIP suggest that he has been unlucky this year and may perform better going forward.

Mantiply is known for his ability to induce ground balls with a 54% groundball rate. This could pose a challenge for the powerful Rangers offense, which ranks fifth in MLB with 165 home runs this season. If the Rangers struggle to hit the ball in the air, it may limit their ability to capitalize on their home-run power.

The Rangers will counter with left-handed pitcher Andrew Heaney, who has started 28 games this year. While Heaney has a solid 10-6 win/loss record, his ERA of 4.15 suggests that he is slightly above average. However, his FIP indicates that he may have been lucky this year and could potentially perform worse going forward.

According to the statistics, both Mantiply and Heaney are projected to have below-average performances in this game. Mantiply is expected to pitch around 3.7 innings and allow 2.0 earned runs on average. He is also projected to strike out 2.8 batters but give up 4.2 hits and walks, which is not ideal. On the other hand, Heaney is expected to pitch around 4.3 innings and allow 2.4 earned runs on average. He is projected to strike out 4.2 batters but give up 4.6 hits and walks, which is also not favorable.

In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank 17th in MLB, while the Rangers boast the third-best offense. The Diamondbacks have shown average performance in team batting average and home runs, but excel in stolen bases. The Rangers, on the other hand, rank highly in all three categories except stolen bases, where they are ranked 25th.

Based on the current odds, both teams have an equal implied win probability of 50%. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game. The Sharp Model X projects both teams to score an average of 0.00 runs in this game, which suggests a potentially low-scoring affair.

While the statistics and projections point to a competitive matchup, it remains to be seen which team will come out on top. The Diamondbacks will rely on their home field advantage and strong bullpen, while the Rangers will look to their potent offense to secure a victory. As the game unfolds on October 31st, baseball fans and bettors alike will be eagerly watching to see how this interleague showdown plays out.

Rangers Insights

• The leading projection system (The Sharp Model X) expects Andrew Heaney to be limited in this matchup, projecting a maximum of 85 pitches.

• According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Texas Rangers' bullpen profiles as the 8th-best out of all MLB teams.

Diamondbacks Insights

• Alek Thomas is an extreme groundball hitter and matches up with the strong infield defense of Texas (#1-best of the day).

• Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 3rd-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

Betting Trends

• The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 55 of their last 97 games (+14.00 Units / 13% ROI)

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 87 of their last 158 games (+21.78 Units / 10% ROI)

• Corbin Carroll has hit the Hits Under in 6 of his last 7 games at home (+8.35 Units / 83% ROI)