Sharp App: Sports Betting

Rangers vs Astros Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 23rd, 2023

The Houston Astros are set to face off against the Texas Rangers on October 23, 2023, at Minute Maid Park. As the home team, the Astros will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd. This matchup is a highly anticipated American League League Championship game between these two teams.

The Astros are projected to start right-handed pitcher Cristian Javier, who has had an average season according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Javier has started 31 games this year, with a win/loss record of 9-5 and an ERA of 4.67. He is expected to pitch around 4.6 innings and allow 2.6 earned runs on average in this game.

On the other side, the Rangers will have Max Scherzer, a right-handed pitcher who is considered one of the best in MLB. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Scherzer is ranked as the 20th best starting pitcher in the league. He has started 27 games this year, with a win/loss record of 13-6 and an ERA of 3.77. Despite his impressive numbers, Scherzer's peripheral indicators suggest that he has been unlucky this year and is likely to perform even better going forward.

In their last game, the Astros faced the Rangers and unfortunately lost by a score of 9-2. The Rangers had a closing Moneyline price of +100, with an implied win probability of 48%. However, our projections indicate that the Rangers have a 53% win probability for this game, suggesting that there may be value in betting on them.

The Astros offense ranks as the 5th best in MLB this season, showcasing their talent and ability to score runs. Their best hitter, Kyle Tucker, has been a key contributor throughout the season. The Rangers, on the other hand, have the 3rd best offense in MLB, led by Marcus Semien. Both teams have powerful lineups, but the Astros have the advantage in terms of team batting average, while the Rangers excel in home runs.

Considering the pitching matchup, Javier's high-flyball tendency may work against him as he faces the powerful Rangers offense, which ranks 5th in home runs this season. Scherzer, known for his high-strikeout ability, may face some challenges against the Astros, who have the 5th fewest strikeouts in MLB.

The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations for a high-scoring game. The Astros are slight favorites with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% win probability, while the Rangers have a moneyline of +110, suggesting a 46% win probability. However, our projections give the Rangers a 53% win probability, indicating a potentially close game.

Rangers Insights

  • Max Scherzer will have the handedness advantage over 6 opposing bats today.

  • Corey Seager is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever all game considering none of the available options for the Houston Astros share his handedness.

  • According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), Jonah Heim (the Rangers's expected catcher in today's game) grades out as an elite pitch framer.

Astros Insights

  • The Houston Astros infield defense projects as the worst among every team playing today.

  • Texas's #2-ranked outfield defense of all teams on the slate today poses a formidable challenge for Kyle Tucker, who tends to hit a lot of flyballs.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 64 games (+11.45 Units / 16% ROI)

  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 94 of their last 159 games (+20.98 Units / 11% ROI)

  • Alex Bregman has hit the Hits Under in 9 of his last 14 games at home (+8.85 Units / 63% ROI)