Sharp App: Sports Betting

Rangers vs Astros Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 22nd, 2023

On October 22, 2023, the Houston Astros are set to face off against the Texas Rangers at Minute Maid Park. As the home team, the Astros will have the advantage of playing in familiar territory. This game holds significance as it is the sixth game in the series between the two teams.

The Astros are projected to start left-handed pitcher Framber Valdez, who has had an impressive season with a 12-11 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.45. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Valdez is ranked as the 18th best starting pitcher in MLB. On the other hand, the Rangers are expected to start right-handed pitcher Nathan Eovaldi, who has a 12-5 win/loss record and an ERA of 3.63. Eovaldi is ranked as the 86th best starting pitcher in MLB.

In their last game, the Astros emerged victorious with a close 5-4 win against the Rangers. The Astros had a closing Moneyline price of -105, indicating a 49% implied win probability. The Rangers, on the other hand, had a closing Moneyline price of -115 with a 51% implied win probability. Both teams are evenly matched, as indicated by the close odds.

The Astros boast a strong offense, ranking as the 5th best in MLB this season. Their batting average ranks 14th, home runs rank 9th, and stolen bases rank 12th. The Rangers, however, have the 3rd best offense in MLB, excelling in batting average, home runs, but lagging in stolen bases, where they rank 25th.

Valdez's projection for this game suggests that he will pitch an average of 5.0 innings and allow 2.2 earned runs. He is expected to strike out 4.9 batters but may struggle with allowing 4.7 hits and 4.7 walks. Eovaldi, on the other hand, is projected to pitch an average of 4.8 innings and allow 2.8 earned runs. He is expected to strike out 3.6 batters but may struggle with allowing 5.2 hits and 5.2 walks.

The Astros have a slight edge in the betting market with a current moneyline of -125 and an implied win probability of 53%. The Rangers have a moneyline of +105 and an implied win probability of 47%. Both teams are expected to have relatively close team totals, with the Astros projected to score 4.40 runs and the Rangers projected to score 4.10 runs.

Rangers Insights

  • The Texas Rangers infield defense grades out as the best out of every team today.

  • Nathaniel Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

  • Projected catcher Jonah Heim projects as an elite pitch framer, per the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).

Astros Insights

  • Because groundball batters have a significant edge over flyball pitchers, Framber Valdez and his 58.5% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, The Sharp Model) will be in a troublesome position in today's outing going up against 1 opposing GB hitters.

  • Martin Maldonado is certain to hold the advantage against every reliever all game since none of the available options for the Texas Rangers share his handedness.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Over in 40 of their last 70 games (+11.20 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 94 of their last 171 games (+24.52 Units / 10% ROI)

  • Nate Lowe has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 40 games (+9.95 Units / 16% ROI)