Rangers vs Angels Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 25th, 2023
On September 25, 2023, an American League West matchup is set to take place at Angel Stadium, where the Los Angeles Angels will play host to the Texas Rangers. The Angels, currently sitting in fourth place in the division, have had a tough season with a record of 70-86. Despite being mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, the team looks to find motivation in their remaining games.
The Angels are projected to start left-handed pitcher Patrick Sandoval, while the Rangers are projected to start right-handed pitcher Jon Gray. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Sandoval is ranked 46th among MLB starting pitchers, indicating that he is a good pitcher. Meanwhile, Gray is ranked 89th, suggesting he is above average.
Sandoval has started 27 games this season, with a record of 7-13 and an ERA of 4.19, which is above average. However, his SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA) suggests that he has been lucky this year and may perform worse going forward. Gray, on the other hand, has started 28 games with a record of 8-8 and an ERA of 4.22, also above average.
In terms of team rankings, the Angels have the 24th best record in MLB this year, but our Power Rankings place them as the 5th best team, indicating potential underperformance. Their offense ranks 14th in MLB, with an average team batting average of .000. However, they excel in home runs, ranking 3rd in the league. The Rangers, with the 6th best record in MLB, are considered the 27th best team by our Power Rankings, suggesting potential overperformance. Their offense ranks 3rd in MLB, with a strong team batting average and home run ranking.
Looking at the projected performances, Sandoval is expected to pitch an average of 5.6 innings, while Gray is projected for 5.1 innings. Sandoval is projected to allow more hits and walks compared to his counterpart, which could pose a challenge for him. The game total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating an expectation of a high-scoring game.
Based on the current odds, the Angels are considered underdogs with an implied win probability of 37%. The Rangers, as the favorites, have an implied win probability of 63%. The Sharp Model X projects both teams to score an average of 0.00 runs in this game, suggesting a potentially low-scoring affair, but these projections should be taken with caution.
Rangers Insights
Jon Gray's higher usage percentage of his secondary pitches this season (57.5% compared to 49.4% last year) ought to work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.
The Los Angeles Angels have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Corey Seager can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
Jonah Heim, the Rangers's expected catcher in today's game, projects as an elite pitch framer according to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model).
Angels Insights
Patrick Sandoval’s fastball velocity over his last 3 GS (93.4 mph) has been a considerable increase over than his seasonal rate (92.4 mph).
As it relates to his batting average, Mike Moustakas has had positive variance on his side this year. His .255 mark has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .201.
According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Los Angeles Angels' bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the league.
Betting Trends
The Los Angeles Angels have hit the Team Total Under in 30 of their last 48 games (+11.14 Units / 20% ROI)
The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 82 of their last 148 games (+22.69 Units / 11% ROI)
Corey Seager has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 26 of his last 44 games (+5.75 Units / 11% ROI)