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Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Matchup Preview - April 1st, 2023

Editor

Today's contest between the Reds and the Pirates pits The Sharp Model's 296th ranked SP (Rich Hill) against the 24th ranked SP (Nick Lodolo). The rundown on Hill tells us that he leans on his four-seamer fastball 35.6% of the time and keeps hitters off balance with a curveball (35.6%). Lodolo is a sinker guy (47.6%) who brings a curveball as his most-trusted secondary offering.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Rich Hill has been given a shorter leash than the typical pitcher since the start of last season, throwing 12.7 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than the average pitcher.

  • Bryan Reynolds has been lucky with his home runs since the start of last season; his 26.20 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is quite a bit higher than his 17.30 Expected HR/600 (based on The Sharp Model X's interpretation of Statcast data).

  • Projected catcher Austin Hedges profiles as an elite pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have 7 batters in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage against Nick Lodolo in this game.

  • Wil Myers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (100% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.

  • The Cincinnati Reds bullpen grades out as the 2nd-worst in the game, per The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • Ke'Bryan Hayes has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)

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