Sharp App: Sports Betting

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 21st, 2023

In a highly anticipated National League Championship matchup, the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on October 21, 2023, at Chase Field. As the home team, the Diamondbacks will have the advantage of playing in front of their fans.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zac Gallen, who is ranked as the 27th best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. Gallen has had a solid season with a record of 17-9 and an ERA of 3.47. However, his 4.16 xERA suggests that he may have been lucky and could potentially perform worse going forward. In his last start, Gallen struggled, allowing 5 earned runs on 8 hits and 2 walks over 5 innings pitched.

On the other side, the Phillies will send out their ace, Zack Wheeler, who is considered one of the best starting pitchers in the league. Wheeler is ranked as the 5th best starting pitcher in MLB and has a record of 13-6 with a 3.61 ERA. In his last start, Wheeler performed well, going 6 innings with 2 earned runs, 8 strikeouts, 3 hits, and 0 walks.

The Diamondbacks and Phillies have had a close series so far, with the Diamondbacks winning the last game by a score of 6-5. In that game, the Diamondbacks had a closing Moneyline price of +110, indicating a 46% implied win probability. The Phillies, on the other hand, had a closing Moneyline price of -130, suggesting a 54% implied win probability.

Offensively, the Diamondbacks rank 17th in MLB this season, while the Phillies rank 6th. The Diamondbacks have been solid in terms of team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 11th and 3rd, respectively. The Phillies, on the other hand, have excelled in team batting average and stolen bases, ranking 8th and 10th, respectively.

Based on the current odds, the Diamondbacks have an average implied team total of 3.81 runs, while the Phillies have an average implied team total of 4.19 runs. The Sharp Model X projects both teams to score 0.00 runs on average in this game, although these projections should be taken with caution.

With the Phillies having the advantage in starting pitching and offense, they enter this matchup as the favorites. However, the Diamondbacks have the home-field advantage and will look to build on their recent victory over the Phillies. It promises to be a close and exciting game for both teams and their fans.

Phillies Insights

  • The leading projection system (The Sharp Model) projects Zack Wheeler in the 90th percentile when assessing his strikeout talent.

  • Kyle Schwarber is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Arizona (#1-best of all teams today).

  • Kyle Schwarber pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 3rd-deepest RF fences today.

Diamondbacks Insights

  • Out of all the teams playing today, the best infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks.

  • Gabriel Moreno has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (98% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.

  • The worst projected batting order of all teams on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Betting Trends

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 52 games (+12.25 Units / 19% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Run Line in 36 of their last 65 games (+9.95 Units / 13% ROI)

  • Brandon Marsh has hit the Hits Over in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.10 Units / 61% ROI)