Sharp App: Sports Betting

Phillies vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 20th, 2023

The Philadelphia Phillies are set to face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks on October 20, 2023, at Chase Field. As the away team, the Phillies will be looking to secure a victory against the Diamondbacks, who will be playing on their home turf. This matchup is part of the National League Championship series, adding an extra level of excitement to the game.

The Diamondbacks are projected to start left-handed pitcher Joe Mantiply, while the Phillies will counter with left-handed pitcher Cristopher Sanchez. Mantiply, ranked as the #132 best starting pitcher in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, has had an average season so far. Despite his ERA of 4.62, peripheral indicators such as SIERA, xERA, and FIP suggest that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward.

Sanchez, on the other hand, has been performing well this season. Ranked as the #56 best starting pitcher in MLB, he boasts an impressive ERA of 3.44. However, his FIP suggests that he may have been slightly lucky and could potentially see a regression in performance.

The Diamondbacks offense ranks as the #17 best in MLB this season, showcasing their average talent. They have been particularly strong in team batting average, ranking #11 in the league. However, their home run and stolen base rankings are more average, coming in at #19 and #3 respectively.

In contrast, the Phillies offense has been strong, ranking as the #6 best in MLB. They excel in team batting average, ranking #8 in the league, and have a solid ranking of #10 in stolen bases. However, their home run ranking is more average, coming in at #16.

Based on the current odds, the Phillies are the favorites with an implied win probability of 54%, while the Diamondbacks have a 46% chance of winning. The Phillies also have a higher implied team total of 4.97 runs compared to the Diamondbacks' 4.53 runs.

While the projections from The Sharp Model X suggest a low-scoring game with both teams averaging 0.00 runs, it is important to note that projections are not always accurate and anything can happen in baseball.

As the game approaches, fans and bettors alike are eagerly anticipating this matchup between the Phillies and the Diamondbacks. With both teams looking to secure a win, it promises to be an exciting contest on the diamond.

Phillies Insights

  • The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense profiles as the worst out of all the teams on the slate today.

  • Today, Kyle Schwarber is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 39.3% rate (98th percentile).

Diamondbacks Insights

  • Extreme groundball batters like Tommy Pham tend to perform worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Cristopher Sanchez.

  • The weakest projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall offensive skill is that of the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Betting Trends

  • The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Run Line in 37 of their last 62 games at home (+12.45 Units / 16% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 77 of their last 127 games (+11.40 Units / 6% ROI)

  • Geraldo Perdomo has hit the Hits Under in 19 of his last 25 games (+11.15 Units / 35% ROI)