Phillies vs Diamondbacks Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 19th, 2023
In a highly anticipated National League matchup, the Arizona Diamondbacks are set to face off against the Philadelphia Phillies on October 19, 2023, at Chase Field. The Diamondbacks, as the home team, will have the advantage of playing in front of their home crowd.
On the mound, the Diamondbacks are projected to start right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt, while the Phillies are expected to start left-handed pitcher Ranger Suarez. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pfaadt is ranked #166 out of approximately 350 pitchers, indicating that he has struggled this season. On the other hand, Suarez has performed above average, ranking #76 among starting pitchers.
Pfaadt has started 19 games this year, with a disappointing win/loss record of 3-9 and an ERA of 5.72. However, his 4.47 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. Suarez, on the other hand, has started 22 games, with a record of 4-6 and an ERA of 4.18.
In terms of offense, the Diamondbacks rank as the #17 best team in MLB this season, with an average team batting average and an average number of home runs. However, they excel in stolen bases, ranking #3 in the league. The Phillies, meanwhile, boast the #6 best offense in MLB, with a solid team batting average and a good number of stolen bases.
The game total for this matchup is set at 9.0 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring game. The current moneyline favors the Phillies, with an implied win probability of 55%, while the Diamondbacks have a 45% chance of winning according to the odds.
Based on the projections, Pfaadt is expected to pitch around 4.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.7 earned runs, and striking out an average of 4.3 batters. However, he is projected to allow a high number of hits and walks. Suarez, on the other hand, is projected to pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs, and striking out an average of 3.7 batters. He is also projected to allow a high number of hits and walks.
In their last game, the Diamondbacks played against an unknown opponent, while the Phillies faced off against an unknown opponent. The Diamondbacks' best hitter this season has been undisclosed, while the Phillies' best hitter has also not been revealed.
Phillies Insights
Because groundball pitchers have a significant advantage over groundball bats, Ranger Suarez and his 49.6% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, The Sharp Model) finds himself in a favorable spot today squaring off against 2 opposing GB bats.
Nick Castellanos is penciled in 7th in the batting order in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 88% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this season.
Kyle Schwarber pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.3% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 3rd-deepest RF fences in today's game.
Diamondbacks Insights
The Arizona Diamondbacks projected batting order projects as the worst of all teams today in terms of overall offensive skill.
Betting Trends
The Arizona Diamondbacks have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 136 games (+10.95 Units / 7% ROI)
The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 72 of their last 115 games (+15.50 Units / 9% ROI)
Christian Walker has hit the Singles Under in 20 of his last 27 games (+8.75 Units / 20% ROI)