Sharp App: Sports Betting

Phillies vs Braves Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - September 18th, 2023

On September 18, 2023, the Atlanta Braves will face off against the Philadelphia Phillies in a National League East matchup at Truist Park. The Braves, with the best record in the MLB and the National League, are looking to solidify their position in the playoffs, while the Phillies are fighting for a Wild Card spot.

The Braves have been dominant this season, currently holding the top spot in the NL East. Led by their explosive offense, which ranks first in MLB in team batting average and home runs, the Braves have exceeded expectations. Their best hitter, Ronald Acuna Jr., has been a force to be reckoned with, boasting a .337 batting average and a 1.004 OPS.

The Phillies, currently in second place in the NL East, are in possession of a Wild Card spot. Although they trail the Braves in the division, the Phillies have put up a solid performance this season. Their offense, led by Trea Turner, ranks sixth in MLB and has contributed to their above-average season.

The pitching matchup for this game features Kyle Wright for the Braves and Zack Wheeler for the Phillies. Wright, an average pitcher according to advanced-stat Power Rankings, has struggled this season with a 7.48 ERA. However, his 4.36 xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky and may perform better going forward. On the other hand, Wheeler, an elite pitcher, has been a standout for the Phillies with a 3.70 ERA and a 27.3% strikeout rate.

In their last game, the Braves suffered a heavy defeat against the Marlins, losing 16-2. Meanwhile, the Phillies fell short against the Cardinals, losing 6-5. Both teams are looking to bounce back from their recent losses and secure a victory in this crucial matchup.

The Braves have the advantage in terms of their record and offensive prowess, while the Phillies are fighting for a playoff spot. However, with Wheeler's strong pitching and the Braves' recent struggles, this game is expected to be a close one.

According to The Sharp Model X, the leading MLB projection system, both teams have a 50% win probability. The game total is set at 9.5 runs, indicating a potentially high-scoring affair. Based on the current odds, the Braves and the Phillies have high implied team totals of 4.75 runs each.

Phillies Insights

  • Compared to the average starter, Zack Wheeler has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 9.1 adjusted pitches each game.

  • J.T. Realmuto has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 98.1-mph over the last week.

  • Philadelphia's 89.6-mph average exit velocity this year ranks among the elite in the league: #4 overall.

Braves Insights

  • Kyle Wright has gone to his curveball 12.9% more often this year (47%) than he did last year (34.1%).

  • Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (The Sharp Model X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (36.9) suggests that Matt Olson has been lucky this year with his 47.1 actual HR/600.

  • Ronald Acuna Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Run Line in 30 of their last 44 games at home (+15.00 Units / 29% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Game Total Over in 24 of their last 43 games (+5.50 Units / 12% ROI)

  • Matt Olson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 30 of his last 49 games (+8.10 Units / 14% ROI)