Sharp App: Sports Betting

Phillies vs Braves Betting Trends, Odds, and Insights - October 7th, 2023

In a National League Division Series matchup, the Atlanta Braves will host the Philadelphia Phillies at Truist Park on October 7, 2023. The Braves, with their powerful offense, are projected to have an advantage as they face off against the Phillies' left-handed pitcher, Ranger Suarez.

The Braves, who hold the top spot in MLB's overall offensive rankings, have been an offensive force this season. They lead the league in team batting average and home runs, showcasing their ability to score runs in various ways. On the other hand, the Phillies have a solid offense, ranking sixth overall in MLB, with a good team batting average.

The Braves' starting pitcher for this game is Spencer Strider, who has been one of the best pitchers in the league this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Strider is ranked as the second-best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating his elite performance. He has started 32 games, boasting an impressive 20-5 win/loss record with a 3.86 ERA. Strider's xFIP suggests that he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform even better in the future.

In contrast, the Phillies will rely on Ranger Suarez, who is considered an above-average pitcher. According to our Power Rankings, Suarez is ranked as the 76th-best starting pitcher in MLB. He has started 22 games this year, with a win/loss record of 4-6 and an ERA of 4.18.

The Braves' offense, known for their power hitting, will look to capitalize on Suarez's pitching style. Suarez is a high-groundball pitcher, and the Braves' ability to hit the ball in the air may pose a challenge for him. With their league-leading home run total, the Braves have the potential to put runs on the board against Suarez.

Based on the current odds, the Braves are the favorites to win this game, with a projected win probability of 65%. The Phillies, as underdogs, have an implied win probability of 35%. The Braves' strong offense gives them a high implied team total of 4.97 runs, while the Phillies have a lower implied team total of 3.53 runs.

Phillies Insights

  • Among all the teams on the slate today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.

  • Typically, batters like Kyle Schwarber who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Spencer Strider.

  • According to the leading projection system (The Sharp Model), the Philadelphia Phillies' bullpen projects as the 3rd-best out of all teams in the majors.

Braves Insights

  • Spencer Strider has been granted more leash than the average pitcher this year, recording 8.5 more adjusted pitches-per-outing than league average.

  • Sean Murphy has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is penciled in 8th in the lineup in today's game.

  • Ozzie Albies pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.5% — 98th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 83 of their last 146 games (+15.80 Units / 10% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 61 of their last 101 games (+7.25 Units / 5% ROI)

  • Bryce Harper has hit the Hits Under in 12 of his last 15 away games (+11.95 Units / 45% ROI)