Sharp App: Sports Betting

Philadelphia Phillies vs Houston Astros Matchup Preview - October 3rd, 2022

Monday evening the Philadelphia Phillies battle against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park. The Phillies offense will be led by Kyle Schwarber, who ranks as the #5th-best hitter in baseball according to The Sharp Model X. Given Kyle Schwarber's profile and today's matchup specifics, The Sharp Model X expects him to average a .361 wOBA, .257 AVG, and .16 HRs. On the other side, Jose Altuve (The Sharp Model X's #4th hitter in MLB) will bolster the Astros lineup. He projects for a .373 wOBA, .270 AVG, and .22 HRs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Aaron Nola has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing 9.0 more adjusted pitches-per-game than league average.

  • Extreme flyball bats like Nick Maton tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers.

  • Projected catcher J.T. Realmuto profiles as an elite pitch framer, via The Sharp Model projection system.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Lance McCullers Jr. has utilized his non-fastballs 9.6% more often this year (75.5%) than he did last year (65.9%).

  • Trey Mancini has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (74% of the time), but he is projected to hit 7th on the lineup card today.

  • The Houston Astros bullpen projects as the 9th-best in the league, according to The Sharp Model.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 95 of their last 151 games (+26.95 Units / 14% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 133 games (+7.90 Units / 4% ROI)

  • Jeremy Pena has hit the Singles Over in 11 of his last 14 games at home (+7.70 Units / 45% ROI)