Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Matchup Preview - August 17th, 2022


Nick Castellanos and the Phillies go head-to-head against Jake Fraley and the Reds today. Over the last 7 days, Nick Castellanos has provided the bulk of the offense for Phillies. He's batted .333 with 4 runs, 2 RBIs, 1 home runs, and 2 stolen bases. Meanwhile, it's been Jake Fraley who has been hot for the Reds. Over the last week, he's batting .400 with 6 runs, 4 RBIs, and 2 home runs.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • Ranger Suarez is an extreme groundball pitcher (50.8% GB% per THE BAT projections), which should make him somewhat immune to the dangers of pitching in Great American Ball Park — the #1 HR venue in the league — in this matchup.

  • Bryson Stott has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (93% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order today.

  • Kyle Schwarber hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and faces the game's 11th-deepest CF fences today.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have 7 batters in the projected lineup that will have the handedness advantage over Nick Lodolo in this matchup.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Joey Votto stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.

  • Today’s version of the Reds projected batting order is weaker than usual, as their .280 THE BAT X wOBA is considerably below their .298 overall projected rate.

Betting Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 45 of their last 83 games (+6.90 Units / 7% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 away games (+14.00 Units / 26% ROI)

  • Rhys Hoskins has hit the Hits Over in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.30 Units / 22% ROI)