Philadelphia Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds Matchup Preview - August 16th, 2022


Right-hander Kyle Gibson is expected to start today for Philadelphia, while right-hander T.J. Zeuch gets the nod at home for Cincinnati. Gibson enters this contest with a 4.29 ERA, backed up by a 4.29 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Zeuch, meanwhile, has a 7.37 FIP underlying his 13.50 ERA. The last time Kyle Gibson was on the bump, he suffered the loss as the Phillies lost 0-3 against the Marlins. He left allowing 2 earned runs and recording 3 strikeouts with 2 walks. Zeuch's last start was against the Mets, when he recorded the loss as the Reds were defeated 2-10. Over 4 innings pitched, he allowed 6 earned runs with 6 hits. He also recorded 4 strikeouts with 2 walks.

Philadelphia Phillies Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Kyle Gibson has used his off-speed and breaking pitches 5.4% more often this year (58.3%) than he did last season (52.9%).

  • Kyle Schwarber has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 101.5-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 92.8-mph figure.

  • Today’s version of the Phillies projected offense is a bit watered down, as their .305 THE BAT X wOBA is considerably below their .318 overall projected rate.

Cincinnati Reds Insights

  • The Cincinnati Reds outfield defense projects as the 3rd-worst on the slate today.

  • Extreme groundball bats like Alejo Lopez generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Kyle Gibson.

  • The Cincinnati Reds bullpen profiles as the 3rd-worst in Major League Baseball, per THE BAT.

Betting Trends

  • The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 50 of their last 91 games (+8.80 Units / 9% ROI)

  • The Philadelphia Phillies have hit the Moneyline in 30 of their last 50 away games (+13.05 Units / 22% ROI)

  • Kyle Schwarber has hit the Runs Under in 21 of his last 34 games (+8.90 Units / 24% ROI)