New York Yankees vs Texas Rangers Matchup Preview - October 4th, 2022

Right-hander Gerrit Cole is expected to start today for New York, while left-hander Kolby Allard gets the nod at home for Texas. Cole enters this contest with a 3.51 ERA, backed up by a 3.50 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Allard, meanwhile, has a 8.58 FIP underlying his 8.47 ERA. The last time Gerrit Cole was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Yankees defeated the Blue Jays 8-3. He left allowing 3 earned runs and recording 4 strikeouts with 1 walk. Allard's last start was against the Angels, when he recorded the loss as the Rangers were defeated 1-4. Over 5.2 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 5 hits. He also recorded 4 strikeouts with 1 walk.

New York Yankees Insights

• Gerrit Cole has used his four-seamer 5.5% more often this season (52.2%) than he did last year (46.7%).

• Aaron Judge has been lucky this year, compiling a .452 wOBA despite The Sharp Model X estimating his true talent level to be .395 — a .057 deviation.

• Harrison Bader hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 83rd percentile) and faces the league's 6th-deepest CF fences today.

Texas Rangers Insights

• Kolby Allard's 2118 rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 21st percentile among starters.

• Projected catcher Jonah Heim profiles as an elite pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

Betting Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 29 of their last 54 games at home (+3.10 Units / 5% ROI)

• The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games (+1.55 Units / 26% ROI)

• Aaron Hicks has hit the Runs Over in his last 8 games (+11.15 Units / 139% ROI)