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New York Yankees vs Houston Astros Matchup Preview - October 20th, 2022


New York's right fielder Aaron Judge looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Yordan Alvarez and the Astros. This season Aaron Judge is batting .305 with 64 home runs, 137 runs, 134 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 1st in the lineup with a The Sharp Model X projection of .228 Avg, .280 wOBA and .09 HRs. On the Astros side, Yordan Alvarez has shined this year (.304 Avg, 39 HRs, 98 Rs, 104 RBIs, & 1 SBs). He's projected to bat 2nd and The Sharp Model X projects his average performance today as a .286 wOBA, and .11 HRs.

New York Yankees Insights

  • Luis Severino has been lucky with his ERA this year; his 3.18 mark is quite a bit lower than his 3.79 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).

  • Josh Donaldson has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (90% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this matchup.

  • The 19.2% Barrel% of the New York Yankees grades them out as the #2 squad in Major League Baseball since the start of last season by this metric.

Houston Astros Insights

  • Framber Valdez's fastball velocity has jumped 1.4 mph this year (93.4 mph) over where it was last year (92 mph).

  • The New York Yankees don't have any same-handed relievers in their bullpen, so Yordan Alvarez is guaranteed to hold the advantage against every reliever all game.

  • Chas McCormick has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.9%) and will be challenged by the game's 10th-deepest RF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Houston Astros have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 90 of their last 144 games (+24.10 Units / 13% ROI)

  • The New York Yankees have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 17 of their last 25 games (+8.85 Units / 30% ROI)

  • DJ LeMahieu has hit the Runs Under in 14 of his last 16 away games (+11.60 Units / 48% ROI)


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