New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - September 21st, 2022

Right-hander Taijuan Walker is expected to start today for New York, while right-hander Adrian Houser gets the nod at home for Milwaukee. Walker enters this contest with a 3.42 ERA, backed up by a 3.71 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Houser, meanwhile, has a 4.18 FIP underlying his 4.85 ERA. The last time Taijuan Walker was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Mets defeated the Pirates 4-3. He left allowing 2 earned runs and recording 5 strikeouts with 0 walks. Houser's last start was against the Yankees, when the Brewers won 7-6. Over 3 innings pitched, he allowed 4 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 1 strikeout with 4 walks.

New York Mets Insights

• Taijuan Walker has averaged 17.9 outs per GS this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

• Adrian Houser has relied on his slider 5.7% more often this year (13.3%) than he did last year (7.6%).

• Tyrone Taylor has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 108.1-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 94.2-mph.

• Today’s version of the Brewers projected lineup is weaker than usual, as their .279 The Sharp Model X wOBA is considerably below their .316 overall projected rate.

Betting Trends

• The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 33 of their last 58 games at home (+10.95 Units / 17% ROI)

• The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 29 of their last 54 away games (+5.85 Units / 10% ROI)

• Max Scherzer has hit the Earned Runs Under in 15 of his last 20 games (+8.85 Units / 32% ROI)