New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves Matchup Preview - June 8th, 2023

a year ago

Editor

The Mets are scheduled to start Justin Verlander (2-3, 4.25 ERA) against Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider (6-2, 2.97 ERA) on Thursday. Justin Verlander suffered a loss in his last outing, as the Mets lost to the Blue Jays 0-3. He pitched 6 innings allowing 1 earned run with 5 hits. He also recorded 8 strikeouts with 3 walks. The last time Spencer Strider took the mound, he recorded a win as the Braves defeated the D-Backs 5-2. He finished with 6 IP, 7 K, 4 BB, while allowing 2 earned runs on 3 hits. Today, Verlander projects for 5.43 innings pitched with 2.9 ER, 5.3 hits, 5.8 strikeouts, and 1.3 walks, according to The Sharp Model. Meanwhile, The Sharp Model projects Strider's average outcome to be 5.84 IP, 2.1 ER, 4.4 H, 8.6 strikeouts, and 1.9 walks.

New York Mets Insights

Justin Verlander has been given an above-average leash since the start of last season, throwing 5.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than average.
Francisco Alvarez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (94% of the time), but he is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.
Tommy Pham hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

Atlanta Braves Insights

Contrary to popular belief, fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Spencer Strider has used his off-speed and breaking balls 5.6% more often this year (40%) than he did last year (34.4%).
The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Matt Olson stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.
Projected catcher Travis d'Arnaud projects as a good pitch framer, per The Sharp Model projection system.

Betting Trends

The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Over in 30 of their last 54 games (+7.05 Units / 12% ROI)
The New York Mets have hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 8 away games (+1.75 Units / 20% ROI)