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New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates Matchup Preview - September 7th, 2022

New York's first baseman Pete Alonso looks to continue his strong season as he takes on Bryan Reynolds and the Pirates. This season Pete Alonso is batting .264 with 32 home runs, 74 runs, 106 RBIs, and 3 stolen bases. Today he's projected to bat 1st in the lineup with a THE BAT X projection of .291 Avg, .379 wOBA and .12 HRs. On the Pirates side, Bryan Reynolds has shined this year (.254 Avg, 21 HRs, 59 Rs, 49 RBIs, & 5 SBs). He's projected to bat 1st and THE BAT X projects his average performance today as a .287 wOBA, and .15 HRs.

New York Mets Insights

  • It may come as a surprise, but fastballs are generally a pitcher's least effective pitch. Jacob deGrom has gone to his non-fastballs 10.6% more often this year (53.2%) than he did last year (42.6%).

  • Tyler Naquin has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (50% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this matchup.

  • The New York Mets bullpen projects as the 4th-best in the league, per THE BAT.

Pittsburgh Pirates Insights

  • Johan Oviedo’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2384 rpm) has been significantly better than than his seasonal rate (2239 rpm).

  • The New York Mets have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ben Gamel stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.

  • Jason Delay has a high pull rate on his flyballs (33.7% — 82nd percentile) and will be challenged by the game's 9th-deepest LF fences today.

Betting Trends

  • The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 9 of their last 15 games at home (+3.35 Units / 20% ROI)

  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 66 of their last 117 games (+7.27 Units / 5% ROI)