New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - September 20th, 2022
Right-hander Carlos Carrasco is expected to start today for New York, while left-hander Aaron Ashby gets the nod at home for Milwaukee. Carrasco enters this contest with a 3.70 ERA, backed up by a 3.40 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Ashby, meanwhile, has a 4.05 FIP underlying his 4.58 ERA. The last time Carlos Carrasco was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Mets defeated the Pirates 7-1. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 11 strikeouts with 2 walks. Ashby's last start was against the Cubs, when the Brewers lost 7-8. Over 5 innings pitched, he allowed 6 earned runs with 8 hits. He also recorded 8 strikeouts with 0 walks.
New York Mets Insights
Carlos Carrasco has relied on his four-seamer 5.4% less often this year (34.4%) than he did last year (39.8%).
Jeff McNeil's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 86.8-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 83-mph over the last 14 days.
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
Aaron Ashby's 95.4 mph fastball velocity this year is in the 92nd percentile among starters.
Omar Narvaez is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst on the slate).
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 95 games (+11.30 Units / 11% ROI)
The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+2.90 Units / 18% ROI)
Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 22 away games (+7.75 Units / 35% ROI)