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New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - September 20th, 2022


Right-hander Carlos Carrasco is expected to start today for New York, while left-hander Aaron Ashby gets the nod at home for Milwaukee. Carrasco enters this contest with a 3.70 ERA, backed up by a 3.40 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Ashby, meanwhile, has a 4.05 FIP underlying his 4.58 ERA. The last time Carlos Carrasco was on the bump, he recorded the win as the Mets defeated the Pirates 7-1. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 11 strikeouts with 2 walks. Ashby's last start was against the Cubs, when the Brewers lost 7-8. Over 5 innings pitched, he allowed 6 earned runs with 8 hits. He also recorded 8 strikeouts with 0 walks.

New York Mets Insights

  • Carlos Carrasco has relied on his four-seamer 5.4% less often this year (34.4%) than he did last year (39.8%).

  • Jeff McNeil's average exit velocity has dropped off in recent games; his 86.8-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 83-mph over the last 14 days.

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Aaron Ashby's 95.4 mph fastball velocity this year is in the 92nd percentile among starters.

  • Omar Narvaez is an extreme flyball batter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of New York (#2-worst on the slate).

Betting Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 51 of their last 95 games (+11.30 Units / 11% ROI)

  • The New York Mets have hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games (+2.90 Units / 18% ROI)

  • Jeff McNeil has hit the Runs Over in 12 of his last 22 away games (+7.75 Units / 35% ROI)


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