New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - September 19th, 2022
Right-hander Max Scherzer is expected to start today for New York, while right-hander Corbin Burnes gets the nod at home for Milwaukee. Scherzer enters this contest with a 2.26 ERA, backed up by a 2.53 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Burnes, meanwhile, has a 3.26 FIP underlying his 2.97 ERA. The last time Max Scherzer was on the bump, the Mets lost 1-7 versus the Nationals. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 5 strikeouts with 1 walk. Burnes's last start was against the Cardinals, when he recorded the loss as the Brewers were defeated 1-4. Over 7 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 1 walk.
New York Mets Insights
Max Scherzer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2444 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2385 rpm).
The New York Mets have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to negatively regress going forward
Milwaukee Brewers Insights
Corbin Burnes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.
Omar Narvaez's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 85-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81.7-mph in the last 14 days.
The 15.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #10 squad in the league since the start of last season by this stat.
Betting Trends
The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 52 of their last 95 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 24 games (+1.10 Units / 4% ROI)
Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 38 of his last 71 games (+11.00 Units / 10% ROI)