New York Mets @ Milwaukee Brewers Matchup Preview - September 19th, 2022


Right-hander Max Scherzer is expected to start today for New York, while right-hander Corbin Burnes gets the nod at home for Milwaukee. Scherzer enters this contest with a 2.26 ERA, backed up by a 2.53 FIP (which is a better measure of the things a pitcher can control). Burnes, meanwhile, has a 3.26 FIP underlying his 2.97 ERA. The last time Max Scherzer was on the bump, the Mets lost 1-7 versus the Nationals. He left allowing 1 earned run and recording 5 strikeouts with 1 walk. Burnes's last start was against the Cardinals, when he recorded the loss as the Brewers were defeated 1-4. Over 7 innings pitched, he allowed 3 earned runs with 7 hits. He also recorded 5 strikeouts with 1 walk.

New York Mets Insights

  • Max Scherzer’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2444 rpm) has been considerably higher than than his seasonal rate (2385 rpm).

  • The New York Mets have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in MLB this year, according to THE BAT X, and are likely to negatively regress going forward

Milwaukee Brewers Insights

  • Corbin Burnes has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, throwing 10.8 more adjusted pitches-per-game than the average starting pitcher.

  • Omar Narvaez's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 85-mph seasonal mark has decreased to 81.7-mph in the last 14 days.

  • The 15.3% Barrel% of the Milwaukee Brewers makes them the #10 squad in the league since the start of last season by this stat.

Betting Trends

  • The Milwaukee Brewers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Over in 52 of their last 95 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)

  • The New York Mets have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Total Under in 13 of their last 24 games (+1.10 Units / 4% ROI)

  • Brandon Nimmo has hit the Hits Under in 38 of his last 71 games (+11.00 Units / 10% ROI)