MLB Bet of the Day | May 4, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 39-43-1, -5.23u
RECAP: Yesterday, I wrote the line: I would pay to see Patrick Corbin and the Washington Nationals beat the Blue Jays today. Well, my friends, we definitely did, as we go 0-2 on the day to drop our total to the lowest it’s been in my Freebie history. The Red Sox also didn’t show up, and it was just a tough day top to bottom. We’ve got to rebound today, and it starts from the earliest games possible. 

May 4th, 2024

While sometimes I believe that parks are overrated, tonight’s matchup between the Baltimore Orioles and Cincinnati Reds is a surefire way to get fireworks in Great American Ballpark tonight. 

The Orioles are sending SP John Means on the mound, making his first start of the season after recovering from surgery. The lefty is taking on one of the top lineups in Major League Baseball, who are scoring five runs per game against lefties this season. Both of these teams are really good in the second game of series’ so far this year, and Means’ first start of the season isn’t guaranteed to last long, especially if the Reds can get to him early. In fact, this Baltimore bullpen isn’t rested whatsoever after using multiple pitchers yesterday, and the Orioles will need all of the help they can get, especially if Means is on some sort of pitch count. 

On the other side, the Reds are sending Andrew Abbott, the hard-throwing lefty who has a WHIP of 1.61 at home this season. He’s mostly been able to avoid runs, but this is by far the toughest lineup he’s faced this season; the Orioles are a top-hitting team against lefties this season, averaging nearly seven runs per game against left-handed pitching. They’re hitting .274 this season against lefties with an on-base percentage near 35%, and been able to dice up lefties this season. 

Plus, these bats mean business in both dugouts. Players like Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, and Elly De La Cruz all have hard-hit percentages over 50%, and especially in a ballpark like this, the ball can absolutely fly. Yesterday, the ball was flat, but tonight, we’re expecting high totals all over this game, especially with these two pitchers on the mound. 

It’s a gamble, but every bet is a gamble - let’s take the over 9.5 in this game at plus-money, to guarantee some profit if it hits. Five runs from each? These teams can do it in their sleep. 

PICK: Baltimore/Cincinnati over 9.5

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