MLB Bet of the Day | May 3, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

If you have any questions, hit me up in the Discord, linked below, and be sure to add a PRO SUBSCRIPTION to your daily routine to maximize your best bets, no matter the sport. 

OVERALL RECORD: 39-41-1, -3.23u
RECAP: Another big plus-money winner as our MLB of the Day freebie cashed easily, with the Brewers running away with the win during the latter half of the game. It was my only play over the past two days as there just wasn’t a ton of value I was interested in during the duration of the slates, and today’s is massive. Let’s dive in and get into what we’re going to find value in today. 

May 3rd, 2024

Maybe I’m being punked. It really could be true. But the Toronto Blue Jays to win by more than one run today is slated at -110 against the Washington Nationals. A Nationals team who looks pretty decent to start the season, but for the second consecutive year, are throwing the worst pitcher in baseball. 

Patrick Corbin is only on this MLB roster because of his contract; he’s a AAA arm at best at this point in his career. He sports an xERA this season of 6.59, which is literally in the bottom 4% of the league, and he’s literally in the worst percentile in the league in expected batting average. There’s been one game all season that he wasn’t lit up. He’s hit hard in 50% of all batted balls, and there are some boppers on this Toronto team who can hit the ball hard consistently. 
He’s faced Toronto hitters 87 times in his career, and opposing batters’ batting average is over .400 against him. Weighted on base is near .500. And for you baseball nerds out there, his average launch angle against balls put in play is near 20 degrees. If you don’t know what that means: that’s freaking nuts. 

I don’t want to harp on Corbin much longer, but the Jays are hitting .242 against lefties, and are at least getting on base 32% of the time. That number should jump up against this lefty in particular. The Jays have had a day off, while the Nationals are coming back all the way from Texas to play in this game, where they were rocked by the Rangers last night. 

Oh, and Yusei Kikuchi is on the mound for the Jays, who has been pretty stellar this season, walking just 5% of batters faced and holding batters to an expected batting average of .236. He’s been dominant over his last five starts, holding teams to a collective eight total runs over that stretch. He’s been good on the road this season, and Nationals Park isn’t exactly a thunderdome of hard-hit balls - he should be able to go six strong in this one against a lackluster Nationals team, who is barely scoring over two runs per nine innings against righties. 

Let’s take the Jays in this one by at least two, as they should continue to rock Corbin. If he comes out strong, I’ll eat my words, but I’ll pay to see that happen. 

PICK: Toronto Blue Jays -1.5

Join the conversation for free in our Discord server or sign up to get PRO ACCESS using the following link: Mitch S

Join Discord and ask @MitchS any questions you have on other games!