MLB Bet of the Day | May 15, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 57-54-4, +0.19u
RECAP: All of a sudden, after one phenomenal day, we’re back in the green. We hammered three straight winners, all on totals in the afternoon/evening slate yesterday, including a sweat-free MLB of the Day, where we are so hot it’s unbelievable. We also hammered the under in Minnesota and Chicago to profit 2.73 units on the day. Major upswing, and let’s build on it today. 

May 15th, 2024

In the third game of this series between the Rays and the Red Sox, we’re relying on two pitchers who have had shaky pasts, but have look to put things together as of late. Taj Bradley is taking the mound for the Rays, while the Sox are sending out best-kept-secret Tanner Houck to break the split of the first two games. 

Tanner Houck is a secret because he’s been quietly really, really good since he debuted just a few years ago. Houck carries a walk percentage in the 95th percentile and misses barrels with the best of them, which is why we’re leaning under here today in this divisional matchup. At home this season, he sports a WHIP under 1.00 and has allowed only 8 earned runs over 28 innings; that’s pretty darn good. He’s made it to six innings pitched in literally every game so far this season, and this Sox bullpen needs it, after their gauntlet of a game yesterday. 

Bradley is a wildcard, as we don’t know a ton about him this season. He was on-and-off last season, but he kicked off this season with a dominant, six inning outing against the best team in the American League. Last season he struggled mightily on the road, but that’s not what I’m noticing in his mechanics this season; and he’s facing a team that strikes out quite a bit, and hasn’t been able to put together a coherent offense over the past seven days. 

In fact, the Red Sox are hitting only .235 against righties this season at home, and are getting on base less than 30% of the time, which is that much-needed clip that we’re looking for. Over their last ten games, they’re averaging under three runs per game and hitting a measly .190 – and the under has hit in 90% of their past ten. The offense is simply anemic. 

On the other side, the Rays aren’t much better, sporting one of the most disappointing offenses of the season. Over their last ten, Randy Arozarena and company are hitting a measly .231 and averaging under four runs per game. 

This under 8.5 doesn’t seem free, and that’s okay. We’ve got to rely on Taj Bradley to be the self that he can be, and Tanner Houck to continue to be the pitcher that we know he is; it may be a tall task, but it’s value I’m willing to bet on. Let’s take the under. 

PICK: Tampa Bay / Boston under 8.5

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