MLB Bet of the Day | March 30th, 2024

In this column, I’ll go through the BEST BET I’m seeing in the league today; this can be in a spread, a moneyline, an Over/Under, or a player prop.

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OVERALL RECORD: 3-3, +.19u
RECAP: We follow up our Opening Day catastrophe with a solid day two, going 2-0 and gaining 1.87 units on the day, including a plus-money MLB of the Day that waited until the ninth to cash. We also had the under in Houston, as that game was sweaty, too – with the Yankees putting up a ton of runs in the later innings. We’ll look to build on that slate as another massive MLB slate comes our way. 

March 30th, 2024

We’re going to once again focus on a total here in MLB of the Day, and today’s total is definitely going to be one that will surprise you. In the past two games, the Rockies have been outscored by the Diamondbacks by a score of 23-4, and it’s no wonder that the total tonight's again is near ten. We’re going to fade what the public thinks, and hammer the money handles tool tonight. 

Our Sharp App Money Handles tool just updated, and is showing that only 35% of the betting handle is on the under, but a crazy 96% of the money handle is on this side, leading us to a difference of 61%. But our pitching numbers are actually what I’m more focused on, as we’re due to see a downturn or regression in the numbers on the side of the Diamondbacks.

I don’t think that the DBacks lose this game necessarily; I think that they’re just due for offensive regression. Austin Gomber, who is pitching for the Rockies, was a much more impressive pitcher on the road than at home last season, with an ERA just above 3, and he’s shown to be effective in these types of scenarios. I don’t think he’s going to be lights out, but he should at least put up a better fight. 

The other side is the side I’m excited about, and it’s Tommy Henry on the mound for the Snakes. He’s returning from injury after missing the last two months of the season last year, but he’s HOT against this Rockies lineup; through 46 plate appearances against this team, he’s averaging an xBA of .197 and is elite at limiting hard hits. In his last appearance against Colorado, he went seven scoreless and only allowed two total hits to this lifeless team. 

Let’s take the under in a series that has SCREAMED overs, and despite these past two games, we’re bound to see regression from this Diamondbacks offense. Let’s just hope that these two pitchers can keep the opposition off the board. 

PICK: Colorado/Arizona under 9.5

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